Logan Mohtashami on mortgage rates under a Trump presidency
Nov 7, 2024
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Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, dives into the implications of the recent election on mortgage rates. He discusses the bond market's role, particularly the 10-year yield, in predicting future trends. The conversation shifts to potential economic policies under a Trump presidency, including impacts on inflation and housing affordability. Mohtashami warns against rushing to conclusions about rate changes and emphasizes the need for coordinated economic strategies amid ongoing market uncertainties.
Current mortgage rates, ranging from 6.75% to 7.5%, are severely impacting housing demand and construction levels.
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy under a new administration will significantly influence mortgage rates and economic stability moving forward.
Deep dives
Impact of Mortgage Rates on Housing Market
Current mortgage rates are significantly affecting the housing market, with rates hovering between 6.75% and 7.5%, resulting in negative housing demand trends. The impact of these rates is evident as housing starts and permits remain at recession-level lows, creating challenges for builders. A lower mortgage rate would facilitate more affordable housing by reducing payment amounts for potential buyers. Thus, achieving affordable housing necessitates either lower mortgage rates or an increase in new home construction.
Federal Reserve's Role and Economic Factors
The Federal Reserve's approach to handling economic conditions, particularly under a new administration, will influence mortgage rates and overall economic stability. If the Fed maintains a cautious stance and refrains from raising rates in response to anticipated tariffs or inflation, mortgage rates may remain manageable. However, should economic data suggest stronger growth, the Fed may face pressure to raise rates, subsequently affecting housing demand. Analysts stress the importance of monitoring economic data closely, as it will dictate future trends in the mortgage market.
Political Dynamics and Economic Policy
The interplay between political decisions and economic policy could significantly shape the mortgage landscape during and after the election period. Acknowledging past experiences, the discussion emphasized the need for deliberation before enacting any drastic measures, such as engaging in a trade war that could lead to inflation and market instability. While there are concerns about increased tariffs, history suggests that immediate impacts on inflation might not escalate as anticipated. Thus, housing and mortgage strategies should be approached with caution until clearer policy directions emerge from the new administration.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about the election and where mortgage rates are headed in a Trump presidency.
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