The Investor Lab First Home Guarantee Scheme, Property Scarcity, and Why It Matters for Everyone Else
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Aug 30, 2025 The podcast dives into the First Home Guarantee Scheme, examining its potential impact on the housing market and questioning who really benefits. The discussion highlights the scarcity of Australian property compared to gold and its consequences in an already tight market. With predictions of billions flooding in, the hosts explore whether this influx will genuinely help first-time buyers or just inflate prices further. They also touch on supply-side solutions and the need for a balanced approach to housing affordability.
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How The 5% Deposit Scheme Works
- Goose explains the scheme mechanics: buyers put 5% deposit while the government guarantees the next 15%.
- That guarantee reduces LMI for buyers but leaves the bank exposure and loan structure largely unchanged.
Property Is Now Scarcer Than Gold
- Scarcity determines value: harder assets hold value better over time.
- Australian residential property now measures harder than gold by stock-to-flow, making it a very scarce asset.
Population Growth Outruns New Housing
- Population growth is outpacing housing supply, pushing dwellings per 1,000 people down.
- That structural mismatch makes housing supply increasingly inelastic and amplifies price pressure.