First Home Guarantee Scheme, Property Scarcity, and Why It Matters for Everyone Else
The Investor Lab
Rethinking Stamp Duty and Housing Market Dynamics
This chapter explores the proposal of stamp duty exemptions for older adults to facilitate downsizing, arguing it could stimulate market liquidity and ultimately boost property prices. It also delves into the complexities of government interventions in housing, advocating for a focus on increasing supply rather than subsidizing private profits.
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What happens when you throw billions of dollars at an asset that’s scarcer than gold?
From October 2025, the Government is about to supercharge demand with its expanded Home Guarantee Scheme (HGS). Promoted as a way to help first-home buyers get into the market with just a 5% deposit, there’ll be no volume caps, no income caps, limited price caps — and the government will guarantee the risk for lenders.
On the surface, this seems like a great thing for affordability - but independent modelling suggests this could pump $10–20 billion in fresh credit into the market in Year 1 alone, adding 20–40k extra buyers. And with housing supply already tight, that extra liquidity doesn’t create new homes — it pushes prices one way only…
In this episode, we break down:
* Why property’s scarcity matters, and how the stock-to-flow lens changes the conversation
* Is real estate more scarce than gold?
* What the new HGS actually is, and how it works
* The likely impact of flooding billions into the housing market
Whether you’re a first home buyer or not, this affects you.
See you on the inside.
00:00 - G'day
02:25 - What Is the First Home Guarantee Scheme?
07:00 - Why Helping First-Home Buyers Isn’t So Simple
09:20 - The Scheme Really Protects Banks, Not Buyers
11:35 - How a 5% Deposit Loan Actually Works
15:00 - Why Australian Property Is Scarcer Than Gold
24:00 - Population Growth Is Outpacing New Housing
26:14 - $20 Billion of New Credit Flooding the Market
32:00 - Why More Money Always Pushes House Prices Up
37:00 - Demand Pulled Forward: The Hidden Side Effect
1:00:00 - The Coming Property Supercycle & Wealth Transfer
1:09:27 - Q&A
IMPORTANT: The Investor Lab is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and seek independent professional advice before making any investment or financial decisions.
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WATCH ON YOUTUBE:
First Home Guarantee Scheme, Property Scarcity, and Why It Matters for Everyone Else
Related episodes:
* WTF is Liquidity? - https://youtu.be/D_vC4kD5ckM?si=Dcd3RWtEGazIN2qt
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