HousingWire Daily Why housing data is trending positive
16 snips
Oct 21, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst known for his insights into the housing market, shares fascinating trends in housing data. He discusses the recent positive shift in purchasing applications and new listings, attributing it to decreasing mortgage rates. Logan also emphasizes the importance of understanding inventory changes and critiques oversimplified narratives in housing forecasts. With a keen eye on economic impacts, he warns about potential risks from trade conflicts that could disrupt housing momentum.
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Rates Drive Housing Momentum
- Mortgage rates falling from ~6.64% toward 6% corresponded with multiple positive housing indicators in mid-2025.
- Purchase apps, pending sales, new listings, and builder confidence all shifted positively when rates dropped.
Bond Yields Shape Mortgage Duration
- The 10-year Treasury yield breaking under 4% and bouncing back signals bond-market positioning that strongly influences mortgage rates.
- Duration at low mortgage rates matters; holding lower rates longer could change market dynamics significantly.
Weigh Labor Versus Inflation Signals
- Focus on labor market data versus inflation when assessing policy direction because Fed decisions hinge on that balance.
- Watch bond-market pricing for signals of anticipated weakness or recession.