How should I be positioned? Year-Ahead Edition with Russ Koesterich (BlackRock) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Dec 12, 2023
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Jason Draho and Russ Koesterich discuss the current market and macro environment for 2024. Topics include asset allocation preferences, economic conditions and risks, investment opportunities in Japan and India, market rotation and macro outlook, and final thoughts on investment strategies.
The US economy is expected to have a soft landing in 2024, experiencing a gradual slowdown in growth without entering a recession.
There are potential investment opportunities in the Japanese and Indian markets, but careful consideration and monitoring is necessary due to historical challenges and risks.
Deep dives
Outlook for the US Economy in 2024
The podcast discusses the macro environment in the US and provides a positive outlook for the economy heading into 2024. The speakers highlight that the US economy is doing well and is not expected to enter a recession in the coming year. They attribute this optimism to factors such as the strong financial position of households, ample stimulus, and a resilient labor market. While the economy is expected to continue expanding, the pace may slow down slightly. The speakers also mention the potential for inflation to decrease, which could potentially lead to cuts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in the latter half of 2024.
Expectations for a Soft Landing
The podcast explores the concept of a soft landing for the US economy as we enter the new year. Both speakers express confidence in a soft landing, where growth moderates, but a recession is not anticipated. They point to real-time data on the labor market and consumer spending, which indicate a gradual slowdown in the economy. They expect further decline in inflation and believe it will settle within the range of two to three percent. The speakers also discuss the possibility of some margin improvement in businesses. However, they emphasize the need for continued reforms in corporate governance and shareholder value to sustain long-term market performance.
Market Expectations for Fed Cuts
The speakers address market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. They acknowledge that the market has priced in the possibility of cuts, with more than a 50 percent chance of cuts in March and a total of 130 basis points of cuts priced in for the year. However, they express skepticism about the likelihood of preemptive cuts, considering the relatively strong economy and inflation still above target. They discuss the risk of disappointment if the Fed does not follow through with the expected rate cuts, which could lead to market adjustments and a reevaluation of expectations.
Opportunities in the Japanese Market
The podcast highlights potential opportunities in the Japanese market. The speakers mention Japan as a market that could offer attractive returns due to recent optimism about corporate sector reforms and the normalization of Japanese inflation. They caution that the sustainability of these improvements is critical for longer-term outperformance. They also mention India as another market with solid growth potential and an innovative corporate sector. However, they highlight the importance of careful consideration and monitoring in investing in these markets, given the historical challenges and potential risks involved.
As 2024 quickly approaches, our conversation offers perspective on the current market and macro environment heading into year end, as well as what 2024 might have in store for investors. We also spend time discussing asset allocation preferences and positioning ideas. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager, and member of the Global Allocation Team with BlackRock. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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