Episode 437: CBRE’s Richard Barkham Sees New Real Estate Cycle Emerging in 2025
Jan 30, 2025
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Richard Barkham, chief economist at CBRE, shares valuable insights on the emerging real estate cycle expected in 2025. He forecasts GDP growth around 2.3% for this year, signaling lower vacancy rates and rising rental growth. Barkham highlights a positive investor sentiment driven by past inactivity and a strong economic outlook. He also discusses trends across various real estate sectors, noting the resilience of retail and multifamily spaces. The thriving data center market fueled by cloud computing presents new opportunities as American cities revitalize.
The economy is poised for a new real estate cycle in 2025, marked by declining vacancy rates and growing rental prices.
Investor sentiment is optimistic, driven by strong GDP forecasts and a pent-up demand for portfolio adjustments after years of inactivity.
Deep dives
Positive Economic Outlook for 2025
The economy is projected to experience a GDP growth of approximately 2.3% in 2025, driven by strong consumer spending and corporate earnings. Several factors contribute to this positive outlook, including solid balance sheets within the consumer sector and robust real income growth. Although some areas are facing challenges due to higher prices, overall consumer sentiment remains strong, which will support corporate profitability. This economic momentum is expected to enhance the labor market as well, signaling the potential for a favorable year ahead.
Real Estate Market Dynamics
The real estate sector is emerging from an end-of-cycle event with vacancy rates peaking and beginning to decline. This shift is particularly notable in the office, industrial, and multifamily sectors, where the high levels of new construction have contributed to elevated vacancy rates recently. As the economy continues to grow in 2025, demand for space is anticipated to increase, leading to a rollout of new cycles characterized by gradual rental growth. Overall, the market is expected to stabilize, with vacancy rates trending downward alongside a recovery in rental prices.
Sector-Specific Insights and Opportunities
The retail sector, despite experiencing rising vacancy rates in the past, shows signs of recovery due to fewer new constructions and a resilient consumer base. Retailers have adapted post-COVID by enhancing their business models, which positions them favorably in the current market. Meanwhile, the multifamily sector remains strong with high demand as America faces a housing shortage, especially in the Sunbelt region. Although the industrial sector may see a slight decline in leasing activity compared to pandemic highs, it will still maintain robustness, marking 2025 as a year of opportunity across multiple property segments.
Richard Barkham, chief economist at CBRE, was a guest on the latest episode of Nareit’s REIT Report podcast.
CBRE is forecasting GDP growth of about 2.3% this year. With the economic momentum of 2024 continuing into 2025, “I think we're seeing the slow start to a new real estate cycle,” as vacancy begins to trend lower and rental growth generally firms and starts to head higher, Barkham said.
Barkham described investor sentiment as “very positive” given the GDP forecast and the outlook for the year, “and based on the fact that people haven't been active for two or three years, or not very active….people are anxious to get moving and adjust their portfolios and deploy capital.”
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