Ep 93: Michael Doran on the War in Israel & Ghosts of 1973
Oct 10, 2023
auto_awesome
Michael Doran, director of Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, discusses the recent Hamas attack on Israel, potential Israeli objectives, Iranian involvement, intelligence failures, and parallels with the Yom Kippur War.
The recent attack by Hamas on Israel reveals significant operational and intelligence failures on the part of Israel, highlighting the need for improved decision-making and prioritization of security.
Iran's involvement in supporting and empowering Hamas in the attack aims to undermine normalization efforts between Israel and Arab states, elevate Hamas in Palestinian politics, and divert international attention from Iran's nuclear program.
Deep dives
Timing the Attack and Historical Parallels
The recent attack by Hamas on Israel, timed to coincide with the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, bears striking parallels to the events of 1973. In both cases, Israel was caught off guard and faced a significant intelligence failure, allowing the enemy to inflict heavy damage. The attacks led to territorial gains by the aggressors, and in both cases, the conflict ended in a stalemate due to external interventions. The timing of the attack also served Hamas' goal of putting the Palestine question at the forefront of international attention and derailing the focus on Iran's nuclear program.
Iran's Role and Objectives
Iran played a significant role in supporting and empowering Hamas in this attack, aiming to achieve several objectives. Firstly, Iran sought to undermine the normalization efforts between Israel and Arab states, such as Saudi Arabia, and weaken the Abraham Accords. Secondly, Iran aimed to elevate Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in internal Palestinian politics, ultimately hoping to establish Hamas as the sole representative of the Palestinian people. Lastly, by escalating the conflict, Iran aimed to deflect international attention from its own nuclear program and shift the focus towards the Israel-Palestine issue.
Operational Failures and Political Divisions
The attack revealed significant operational and intelligence failures on the part of Israel. Hamas employed sophisticated strategies, including blinding the Israelis' initial awareness through drone attacks, overwhelming their defenses with multiple breaches and divergent attack methods, and exploiting the Israelis' reliance on high-tech defense systems. These failures, coupled with potential redeployments of forces to the West Bank, raised political questions about the Israeli government's decision-making and priorities, leading to debates about the protection of settlers versus the security of the southern region.
Potential Escalation and American Role
The conflict's impact extends beyond the Gaza-Israeli borders, with potential routes for escalation. Reports suggest Iran encouraging Hezbollah to join the fight in the north, while others speculate that now might be a opportune time for Israel to take action against Iran's nuclear program. Amidst these possibilities, the role of the United States is crucial in preventing further escalation. However, the current US approach, prioritizing engagement and de-escalation with Iran, fails to recognize Iran's true adversarial role and the need to contain its military capabilities.
Michael Doran, senior fellow and director of the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East at the Hudson Institute, joins the show to talk about Iran-backed Hamas’ savage attack on Israel, how we can expect Israel to act in Gaza, prospects for escalation, and the echoes of 1973.