CRE Exchange: Commercial Real Estate, Property Valuations, Real Estate Analytics and Property Tax US CRE debt market: 2024 recap and 2025 outlook with Stephen Buschbom
Jan 30, 2025
Stephen Buschbom, a real estate finance lecturer at Clemson University and co-host of The TreppWire Podcast, returns to share his insights on the U.S. debt market. He reflects on his 2024 predictions and analyzes key trends like maturity defaults and regional market dynamics in Washington, DC, and San Francisco. The conversation extends to economic scenarios that could shape 2025, along with challenges faced by the insurance market and their implications for real estate financing. Exciting forecasts for commercial mortgage-backed securities also highlight potential market shifts.
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Modified Loan Performance
- Maturity defaults have dominated discussions, but modified loan performance is crucial.
- Focus on how modified loans perform after their extensions, indicating market recovery.
Lagging MSA Examples
- Washington, D.C. and San Francisco are examples of lagging MSAs.
- San Francisco shows signs of bottoming, while D.C.'s outlook remains unclear.
Maturity Default Trends
- Maturity defaults rose for office and retail in 2024, indicating persistent distress.
- Track maturity default rates for signs of potential inflection downward in 2025.