VC funding is not popping back. THIS is the new normal—here's how to adjust. | Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta
Nov 8, 2024
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Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta, dives into the current fundraising landscape affecting startups. He discusses why founders shouldn't expect a return to 2021's funding climate and the impact of increased competition. Peter also reveals fascinating insights on the professionalization of the startup ecosystem, the shift in valuation expectations, and the trend towards longer vesting for founders. Learn about the rise of emerging VC hubs and the evolving mindset among entrepreneurs toward sustainable growth in challenging conditions.
Founders must adapt to a competitive fundraising environment, recognizing that conditions won't return to the easy capital days of 2021.
The increasing trend of acquisitions signals a demand for liquidity, but many exits may arise from financial pressures rather than growth opportunities.
Deep dives
Impact of Co-Founder Departure
When a co-founder leaves a startup with a significant share before the seed stage, it complicates the venture capital fundraising process. This departure can drastically alter the cap table, making the remaining founders less attractive to potential investors. Maintaining a balanced equity distribution is essential for sustaining investor interest and ensuring the startup remains viable for fundraising efforts. Thus, protecting equity and having clear vesting agreements is crucial for the long-term health of a company.
AI's Role in Startup Funding
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is an important factor in the startup landscape, accounting for roughly 30-35% of new funding. However, it is not the majority of the early-stage market, as many successful companies are still emerging outside the AI space. For pre-seed companies, having a clear strategy for AI integration is critical to attract investor interest, as those without an AI component may struggle in the current funding environment. Investors are increasingly discerning about the distinction between companies fundamentally based on AI versus those merely incorporating it as a feature.
Evolving Venture Capital Landscape
The venture capital landscape has transformed into a more professionalized sector where founders feel pressured to adhere to specific fundraising milestones. Founders often enter the fundraising journey with a rigid roadmap, which can lead to disappointment as the process is rarely straightforward. Successful fundraising frequently deviates from these predicted paths, reflecting the unpredictable nature of startup growth and capital acquisition. Understanding that success rarely follows a linear or predetermined road can help founders stay flexible in their strategies.
Acquisition Trends and Liquidity
The current environment shows a rising trend in acquisitions, with a notable increase in the number of companies being bought, indicating a demand for liquidity. About 170 companies were acquired in the last quarter, showing a resurgence since early 2022. However, there are concerns over the nature of these acquisitions, as many may stem from liquidity pressures rather than strategic growth. This trend suggests that while exit opportunities are increasing, the underlying reasons for these exits may not always be positive for the businesses involved.
Q3 startup data just dropped. We chat with Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta about valuations at pre-seed, seed and Series A. Why the current fundraising environment is the new normal and not about to get much better. We also talk about trends in founder vesting, and why some founders are choosing to vest for longer.
Finally, we go through what to do if you’re stuck with some product-market fit but mediocre growth, and why more exits are happening now than anytime in the fast couple of years.
Why you should listen
Founders should not expect a return to the fundraising conditions of 2021.
Competition among founders has increased, raising the bar for fundraising.
Many startups are still alive despite challenging conditions, adapting to survive.
Why the professionalization of the startup ecosystem offers more options for founders.
Startup ecosystems are growing in tier two and three cities.
What the one-and-done funding model is and how to use it.
Keywords State of private markets, early stage funding, SAFEs, startup trends, liquidity, valuations, venture capital, market analysis, fundraising, AI, AI startups, vesting schedules, funding models, startup ecosystems, venture capital
Timestamps (00:00:00) Intro (00:01:33) Top Highlights from Q3 Report (00:04:45) The market won't get any easier (00:06:13) Two Reasons why the SAFE Boom Could Change Things (00:12:34) Professionalization of the Industry is a Double Edged Sword (00:17:44) Rounds that are Leading the Market are as Competitive as Ever (00:22:36) Vesting Schedules (00:30:05) Best Location to Raise & the One and Done Method