At Any Rate EM Fixed Income: Reviewing the global & previewing the upcoming idiosyncratic
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Oct 23, 2025 Anezka Christovova, Head of EMEA EM and LATAM Local Market Strategy at J.P. Morgan, and Gisela Brant, a key member of the LATAM Local Market Strategy team, delve into crucial developments in the emerging markets landscape. They discuss the impact of geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic drivers on EM fixed income. Gisela offers insights on Argentina's political climate and market responses pre-election, while Anezka examines the effects of commodity volatility on local rates and the resilience of commodity exporters. Their analysis sheds light on what investors should watch for in upcoming elections.
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Global Beta Is Driving EM Now
- EM markets are trading with strong global beta and lack a single driving theme right now.
- The US government shutdown and missing US data are causing range-bound, directionless EM price action.
AI Capex And Cautious EM Optimism
- IMF/World Bank week highlighted AI-related capex as a top cyclical question for growth and employment.
- EM investor appetite is cautiously positive with inflows resuming but no euphoria.
Carry And Commodities Support FX
- Carry strategies in high-yield EM currencies have continued to perform despite index-level flatness.
- Commodity exporters benefit broadly from gains in gold, copper and other metals, supporting those FXs.