Mike Philbrick, from Resolve Asset Management, shares his expertise on navigating today's unpredictable markets. He discusses why the classic 60/40 portfolio may be outdated and why assets like gold and Bitcoin are crucial for resilient investing. The conversation delves into psychological factors influencing investor behavior, the case for return stacking, and the shift in attitudes towards cryptocurrencies across generations. Mike also highlights the evolving regulatory landscape and how both gold and Bitcoin can complement traditional investments.
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insights INSIGHT
The 40-Year Golden Era Is Over
The 1982–2022 period was a unique disinflationary regime that made 60/40 work exceptionally well.
Today's macro regime (high debt, volatile inflation) breaks that mechanism and requires different diversifiers.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Layer Diversifiers With Return Stacking
Use return stacking to layer diversifiers on top of existing stock/bond allocations instead of selling core holdings.
Keep your trusted equities and add gold/Bitcoin exposures as a portable-alpha overlay.
insights INSIGHT
Different Drivers Make True Diversifiers
Stocks and bonds are cash-flow assets tied to earnings and rates, while gold and Bitcoin price on monetary credibility and scarcity.
This different pricing makes gold and Bitcoin structurally complementary to stocks and bonds.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Philbrick of Resolve Asset Management to discuss why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may no longer be enough, the role of “psychological commodities” like gold and Bitcoin, and how return stacking can change the way investors think about diversification. Mike shares insights on macro regimes, investor psychology, and why these once-fringe assets may now be foundational in building resilient portfolios.
Topics Covered:
Why the 1982–2020 period was a “golden era” for stocks and bonds
How today’s macro regime challenges traditional diversification
The case for gold and Bitcoin as portfolio diversifiers
Debt, inflation, and the shifting role of scarce assets
Why lack of cash flows is a feature, not a bug, for gold & Bitcoin
Generational differences in crypto adoption and advisor psychology
How return stacking works and why it matters for investors
The evolving regulatory and institutional landscape for Bitcoin
Tokenization, blockchain innovation, and the future of finance
Mike’s one lesson for the average investor
Timestamps: 00:00 – Why the 1982–2020 period was a golden era 03:00 – Stocks, bonds, and changing correlations 07:00 – Debt, inflation, and the macro backdrop 10:00 – Gold, Bitcoin, and the cash flow debate 14:20 – Why investors resist gold & Bitcoin 19:00 – Generational divides and adoption rates 23:00 – The evolution of gold and parallels to Bitcoin 26:30 – What is Bitcoin? Digital gold vs growth asset 28:30 – Career risk flipping: from owning to not owning 32:00 – Behavioral biases and implementation frictions 35:00 – Sizing matters: avoiding “all or nothing” mistakes 36:00 – Market-cap weights and neutral allocations 38:00 – Long-term real returns of gold & Bitcoin 40:00 – Will Bitcoin and gold compete or complement? 43:00 – Portfolio construction: risk-weighting gold & Bitcoin 44:00 – Return stacking explained 49:00 – Trend following and dead money periods 51:00 – Risks: quantum computing, regulation, behavior 56:00 – Tokenization, blockchain rails, and innovation 1:01:13 – Mike’s one lesson for the average investor
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