STR Data Lab™ by AirDNA 2026 STR Outlook: Growth, Risks, and Opportunities
What happens when supply finally stabilizes, demand shifts gears, and the global economy refuses to follow the script? In this year-end Outlook episode, AirDNA Chief Economist Jamie Lane sits down with Bram Gallagher to break down what actually happened in 2025 — and what STR hosts and property managers should prepare for in 2026.
Together, they revisit last year’s predictions on supply growth, occupancy, and pricing, grading where the industry hit the mark (and where reality surprised us). The conversation then looks forward, unpacking how macroeconomic forces — from inflation and interest rates to housing affordability and global travel trends — are shaping the next phase of the short-term rental market.
The takeaway? 2026 may not be a breakout year, but it’s a pivotal one. With supply re-accelerating, demand patterns evolving, and events like the World Cup looming large, this episode offers a grounded, data-backed roadmap for navigating what’s ahead — especially for operators who are thinking strategically rather than reactively.
You don’t want to miss this episode!
Key Takeaways for STR Hosts & Operators
Supply has bottomed — and it’s coming back. After slowing sharply in 2025, supply is expected to re-accelerate in 2026, especially in resort and suburban markets.
Occupancy may soften slightly before rebounding. Supply could outpace demand in the short term, leading to modest occupancy pressure before conditions rebalance in 2027.
Pricing power remains limited but stable. ADR growth should improve modestly, though most existing listings will need to hold rates steady rather than push aggressive increases.
International demand is an X-factor. The 2026 World Cup could drive record inbound travel — but policy and sentiment will play a major role in how big that impact is.
Experienced operators have the advantage. The next wave of supply growth is likely driven by more professional, intentional investors — raising the bar for performance and operations.
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Connect with Jamie on social media
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane
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Connect with Scott on social media
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sagescott
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Connect with AirDNA on social media:
Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.co
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdna
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co
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Episode 162