Alpha Exchange

Kris Kumar, Founder and CIO, Goose Hollow Capital

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Aug 21, 2025
Kris Kumar, founder and CIO of Goose Hollow Capital, dives into the shifting economic landscape as AI takes the stage over traditional consumption models. He argues that skyrocketing AI investments signal a pivotal change requiring fresh investor perspectives. Kumar also draws intriguing parallels with past tech bubbles and discusses challenges faced by policymakers as AI reshapes labor markets. Lastly, he highlights promising opportunities in Latin America fueled by AI-driven commodity demand and attractive interest rates.
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INSIGHT

Investment Replacing Consumption

  • Consumption's share of growth is weakening while AI-driven CapEx is rising rapidly.
  • Macro frameworks must update because investment, not consumption, now drives much of GDP growth.
INSIGHT

AI CapEx Is Capital-Intensive

  • AI CapEx is massive and concentrated in compute and data centers, raising long-run capital intensity.
  • The capex boom creates few jobs and benefits a narrow set of sectors so productivity gains aren't yet broad.
INSIGHT

Overinvestment And Obsolescence Risk

  • Historical tech booms overinvest and later face painful re-pricings or asset obsolescence.
  • AI spending risks similar malinvestment and rapid depreciation if new architectures replace GPUs.
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