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Macro Voices

MacroVoices #459 Robert Kahn: Looking Ahead To 2025 Geopolitics & Markets

Dec 19, 2024
In this enlightening conversation, Robert Kahn, Managing Director of Geoeconomics at Eurasia Group, shares his expertise on critical geopolitical issues affecting global markets. He dives into the implications of a potential Trump comeback and its impact on U.S.-China relations. The discussion also covers the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in Gaza. Kahn emphasizes the importance of scenario planning for investors navigating these uncertain waters, revealing how these geopolitical dynamics intertwine with market trends.
01:11:16

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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The potential return of Trump raises trade policy uncertainties that could double tariffs against China, significantly impacting global supply chains.
  • Deteriorating U.S.-China relations are leading to increased market volatility, posing significant risks for investors due to potential retaliatory actions.

Deep dives

Geopolitical Risks Impacting Financial Markets

The podcast discusses four significant geopolitical issues that are impacting investors in 2024. Notably, the potential return of Donald Trump as President, termed 'Trump 2.0', raises uncertainties regarding his trade and economic policies, particularly concerning tariffs against major trading partners like China and Mexico. Additionally, U.S.-China relations are anticipated to further deteriorate due to trade tensions and retaliatory measures, which could disrupt global supply chains. The ongoing crises involving Ukraine and the complex situation in the Middle East, especially regarding Israel and Iran, compound these risks, making the geopolitical landscape particularly unstable and challenging for financial markets.

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