Macro Voices MacroVoices #459 Robert Kahn: Looking Ahead To 2025 Geopolitics & Markets
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Dec 19, 2024 In this enlightening conversation, Robert Kahn, Managing Director of Geoeconomics at Eurasia Group, shares his expertise on critical geopolitical issues affecting global markets. He dives into the implications of a potential Trump comeback and its impact on U.S.-China relations. The discussion also covers the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in Gaza. Kahn emphasizes the importance of scenario planning for investors navigating these uncertain waters, revealing how these geopolitical dynamics intertwine with market trends.
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Market Sentiment on Trump 2.0
- Markets are too optimistic about Trump 2.0's impact, underestimating potential disruptions.
- Trump's policies could be transformative, but uncertainty is high due to his decision-making style.
Trump's Cabinet Confirmations
- Trump's cabinet nominations face resistance, but most will likely be approved.
- Senators prefer nominees withdraw rather than publicly vote against Trump.
Trump vs. Establishment
- Trump's administration will likely clash with establishment Washington.
- Narrow margins in Congress may limit Trump's power, requiring bipartisan support.