Financial History as Superpower: Sir Niall Ferguson on Markets, Mistakes, and Making Big Calls

In this book, Niall Ferguson argues that the British Empire played a crucial role in shaping the modern world. He details how the empire's expansion from the seventeenth to the mid-twentieth century led to the global spread of capitalism, telecommunications, the English language, and institutions of representative government. Ferguson also examines the complexities and controversies of the empire, including its ruthless defense and the imposition of Western norms on other cultures. The book is praised for its engaging narrative and rigorous historical analysis, offering a balanced view of the empire's achievements and pitfalls.

In 'The Ascent of Money', Niall Ferguson explores the human story behind the evolution of finance, from the origins of money in ancient Mesopotamia to the latest financial upheavals. Ferguson argues that finance is the foundation of human progress and reveals financial history as the essential backstory behind all history. The book covers key financial institutions and concepts, such as the invention of banking, the development of bonds and stock markets, and the role of insurance and real estate. It also delves into the impact of financial systems on historical events and the recurring theme that every financial bubble eventually bursts.

This book provides a panoramic view of financial crises from medieval times to the modern era, highlighting patterns of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes. It argues that despite technological advancements and institutional changes, financial crises follow similar patterns due to excessive debt accumulation and systemic risks.

In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes. She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias. Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions. The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making.

In 'Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe', Niall Ferguson delves into the global history of disasters, analyzing why humanity consistently fails to prepare for catastrophes. The book covers a wide range of disasters, from pandemics and earthquakes to financial crises and wars, and argues that many disasters have man-made components. Ferguson critiques the responses of developed countries to the COVID-19 pandemic and highlights the role of bureaucratic failures and complex systems in exacerbating disasters. The book draws on various fields such as economics, epidemiology, and network science to offer a general theory of disasters and suggests ways to improve future responses to crises.