"A long conflict plays into Putin's hands" - is the end in sight?
Nov 27, 2024
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Ian Garner, an expert on Russian politics, Lawrence Freedman, a war studies scholar, and Peter Ricketts, a seasoned diplomat, delve into the escalating conflict in Ukraine. They discuss the implications of the West supplying long-range missiles to Ukraine and Russia's fierce retaliation. The guests analyze public sentiment in Russia, contrasting hardline supporters with skeptics. Additionally, the potential return of Donald Trump adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. Their insights shed light on the evolving narratives and broader consequences of this enduring conflict.
The US and UK’s decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles signifies a major shift in the military dynamics of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
The resurgence of patriotic fervor among Russian citizens reflects a complex interplay of state narratives aimed at both domestic support and undermining Western resolve.
Deep dives
Shifting Dynamics in the Ukraine-Russia Conflict
The recent permission granted by the US and UK to Ukraine to use long-range missiles has marked a significant shift in the dynamics of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This allows Ukrainian forces to strike deeper into Russian territory, potentially escalating the conflict further. Reports indicate that the Biden administration had previously hesitated to provide such capabilities due to concerns over escalation, but the urgency of the situation in Ukraine seems to have prompted a strategic change. As a result, there are rising tensions in the narrative surrounding the conflict, with Russia claiming that Western nations, particularly the UK, are now directly involved in the war.
Public Sentiment and Propaganda in Russia
Public attitudes in Russia toward the war in Ukraine have experienced fluctuations, marked by initial shock among anti-government voices followed by a rallying of support from the more loyal factions. There has been a notable increase in patriotic fervor among Russians, despite the ongoing violence, as government narratives encourage hope for a quick victory against the West. However, following several military setbacks in 2022, public enthusiasm waned significantly when conscription became a possibility for many families. Currently, there is a resurgence of support aligned with the state’s messaging, which emphasizes impending victory and encourages patience.
The Role of Rhetoric in the Conflict
The escalation in rhetoric from Russian leaders is both a tactic aimed at external audiences, particularly in the West, as well as domestic supporters within Russia. This fear-laden language seeks to undermine Western support for Ukraine by presenting the conflict as an existential threat, while also reaffirming the strength of the Russian state to its citizens. By asserting that NATO has become an active participant in the conflict, Russia aims to rally nationalistic sentiment and counter any skepticism about the war's legitimacy. The effectiveness of this strategy hinges on their ability to maintain a narrative of strength and resolve despite ongoing challenges on the battlefield.
Future Implications for Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution
The intersection of military support from Western nations and the potential return of Donald Trump to the US presidency complicates the future of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Analysts suggest that while there may be opportunities for negotiation, such discussions must ensure Ukraine retains its sovereignty and the ability to establish its own security policies. As political dynamics shift, the potential for a ceasefire could emerge, but it must be balanced against ensuring Ukraine is not left vulnerable to further aggression. The situation reveals the delicate interplay between sustaining support for Ukraine and navigating the unpredictable political landscape in the US and Europe.
Last week, the US and the UK gave permission for long-range missiles to be used by Ukrainian forces against military facilities inside Russia for the first time. In response, Putin announced Russia had fired a new hypersonic intermediate-range missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.
Meanwhile the rhetoric from the Russian government and the western media has escalated, but what does this mean in reality for the conflict? And how does all of this fit in with the return of Donald Trump in January?
Kate Lamble is joined by Ian Garner, Lawrence Freedman, and Peter Ricketts.