Future Ready Leadership With Jacob Morgan AI Job Loss Panic Is Wrong—Here's What the Data Actually Shows
Dec 19, 2025
The discussion reveals that fears of AI replacing jobs are exaggerated. New data shows that roles heavily exposed to AI, like analysts and HR professionals, are actually growing and experiencing faster wage increases. The conversation highlights AI as a productivity enhancer, boosting human performance instead of eliminating jobs. It also points to historical patterns where tech adoption leads to organizational changes. However, there are concerns about skill gaps and the erosion of entry-level opportunities that leaders need to address.
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AI-Exposed Jobs Are Growing
- Vanguard's data shows AI-exposed white-collar jobs are growing, not shrinking.
- Real wages in those roles are rising faster than in less AI-exposed occupations.
Solid Data Drives The Conclusion
- Vanguard paired O*NET task data with BLS employment and wage series to measure actual exposure.
- They compared pre-COVID (2015–2019) trends with post-2023 changes after generative AI entered mainstream use.
Wages Confirm Rising Demand
- Employment and real wage trends both point to AI acting as a productivity amplifier so far.
- If AI were replacing labor, we'd expect declining employment and stagnant or falling real wages.