FICC Focus Do EM Country Fundamentals Really Even Matter Anymore?: EM Lens
Dec 10, 2024
Sergey Goncharov, a portfolio manager and head of fixed income Americas at Vontobel, shares his insights on the shifting landscape of emerging market economics. He discusses how diverging monetary policies will emerge in 2025 and the impact of US protectionism and Chinese stimulus. Goncharov also highlights the influence of a strong dollar on inflation in emerging markets and the investment dynamics surrounding China's sovereign bonds. The conversation delves into global growth forecasts, the implications of 'Japanification,' and the evolving macro trends shaping the future.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
EM Central Bank Divergence
- Emerging markets (EM) central banks usually follow the Fed's lead.
- However, 2025 may see divergence due to various US policy changes.
Global Growth Outlook
- US growth outlook is improving relative to the rest of the world.
- Sergey Goncharov discusses growth outlook for US, Europe, and China.
Europe's Japanification Risk
- While there's talk of "Japanification" of China, Europe might face similar stagnation.
- EM currencies often follow the Euro, making European growth crucial for EM.