Horns of a Dilemma US Military Primacy and Alliance Resilience
Jan 20, 2026
In this engaging discussion, Bence Nemeth, a Senior Lecturer at King's College London and expert in defense economics, explores the implications of a potential U.S. 'Suez moment.' He compares historical crises to today’s challenges, dissecting how shifts in U.S. military primacy could impact allies. Bence emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between short-term political changes and enduring alliance frameworks. He outlines scenarios of alliance adaptation versus hollowing, stressing the need for the U.S. to rebuild capabilities and strengthen its security community.
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Conversation That Sparked The Article
- Bence Nemeth recounts a 2025 conversation with a senior RAF officer about alliance infrastructure lasting beyond politics.
- That chat sparked the article by stressing how shared data links, bases, and logistics create durable dependencies.
Perception Lags Behind Material Reality
- Allies often fail to connect visible U.S. weaknesses to the cumulative strain of decades of security commitments.
- A capability-revealing event could shift allies' perceptions more than any single U.S. administration's rhetoric.
Why The Suez Analogy Matters Today
- The 1956 Suez Crisis showed tactical success can still expose strategic decline and force allies to recalibrate.
- A modern 'Suez moment' need not be a defeat; it can be any event that makes U.S. limits plainly visible.