Gideon and Sergei discuss the killing of Yevgeny Prigozhin, its impact on Russian stability and the war in Ukraine. Topics include Prigozhin's actions, the Russian economy, and the effectiveness of sanctions.
The Russian ruble's depreciation and economic difficulties highlight the effectiveness of sanctions, urging the West to tighten and enforce sanctions further.
Yevgeny Prigozhin's elimination demonstrates Putin's return to open repression and reliance on fear-based violence, solidifying his control and transforming his regime.
Deep dives
Key Point 1: Impact of sanctions on the Russian economy
The value of the Russian ruble has plummeted, losing half its value over the past year, signaling that sanctions are indeed taking a toll on the Russian economy. The weakened ruble reflects the impact of oil sanctions and trade sanctions. The decrease in oil revenues has strained the Russian budget, leading to a slower economy. Putin's need for dollars to pay for imports, circumventing sanctions through intermediaries, has further contributed to the ruble's weakening. The West should tighten and enforce sanctions, specifically targeting the import of sensitive technologies and oil, in order to exert greater pressure on Russia.
Key Point 2: Putin's control and use of violence
After the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, it is evident that Putin is firmly back in control. Prigozhin's criticism and launch of a school posed a significant challenge to Putin, leading to his elimination. This public display of punishment, with collateral damage to others, sends a clear message that Putin will not tolerate dissent and reinforces his control through fear-based violence. The elimination of potential threats and critics indicates a return to open repression and a reliance on brute force, moving away from Putin's previous use of PR and media manipulation. This reaffirms the transformation of Putin's regime and the naked reliance on violence.
Key Point 3: Putin's strategy in Ukraine and international response
Putin's plan is to play for time, counting on the patience of Western political leadership and public opinion to wane. He anticipates that Western support for Ukraine will diminish, particularly if a Republican President is elected in the upcoming US presidential election. Although Russian economic difficulties may not yet impact the ability to wage war, the strain of the war and sanctions is evident. Despite ongoing conflict and tensions, Putin aims to negotiate with the West, seeking to remove sanctions and build popular support to maintain an autocratic regime. There are potential openings for a post-Putin era, which may involve successors attempting to divest the repressive regime and end the costly war.
Gideon talks to political commentator and economist Sergei Guriev about the lessons Russians and the outside world will draw from the apparent killing of Yevgeny Prigozhin. How does this affect the stability of the Russian regime and the outlook for the war in Ukraine? Clip: BBC