Mike Simonsen on home price cuts and what the trend means for the spring housing market
Feb 6, 2025
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Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research, shares his expertise on current real estate trends. He discusses the rising trend of home price cuts as sellers react to reduced buyer activity amid high mortgage rates. Simonsen highlights the unusual uptick in price reductions this spring, emphasizing the struggle sellers face in attracting buyers. He also analyzes regional disparities in home prices and the impact of economic uncertainties on the housing market, urging the importance of continuous data analysis for forecasting.
The increase in home price cuts, with 33.1% of homes experiencing reductions, indicates a significant shift in seller strategies due to buyer hesitance.
Regional disparities in housing inventory, particularly between Silicon Valley and suburban areas, highlight varied price stabilization factors across different markets.
Deep dives
Current Trends in Home Sales
Home sales are currently experiencing a slowdown, significantly influenced by mortgage rates hovering around 7%. This has resulted in weekly sales being reported below 2024 trends, which were already concerning. The podcast highlights that while some indicators show prices remaining relatively flat or slightly down year over year, the increase in price reductions signals a shift in market dynamics. As more homes experience price cuts due to a lack of offers, this trend might lead to overall lower future sales prices.
Unusual Price Reduction Patterns
An interesting observation made during the discussion is the unusual increase in the percentage of homes with price cuts at the end of January. Typically, fewer homes should be experiencing price reductions at this time of year, as new listings typically come onto the market. However, the podcast notes that 33.1% of homes available have taken price cuts, indicating a possible market shift where sellers are becoming more adaptive to buyer hesitance. This trend, divergent from historical patterns, suggests that sellers may be anticipating further decreases in offers as buyers hold out for better mortgage rates.
Regional Market Insights
The podcast emphasizes the significant regional differences in home pricing and inventory levels, particularly between Silicon Valley and other parts of the country. For example, while suburban areas like Plano, Texas, have around 410 homes available for 280,000 residents, suburban Silicon Valley offers only 37 homes for the same population size. This stark inventory contrast shows how tighter markets can sustain high home prices despite overall declines in other regions. Moreover, areas like Florida are noted for their declining prices, raising questions about affordability and potential future adjustments in housing demand.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Altos President Mike Simonsen about the data signals he’s watching as we head into spring, including home price cuts.
The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.