How To Win An Election How To Predict Whether Starmer Will Survive 2026
Dec 18, 2025
The hosts dive into the potential challenges facing Keir Starmer ahead of the 2026 elections, exploring the role of Welsh results in his leadership. They share fascinating tales of political memorabilia, dissect why British parties look to Australia and America for campaign advice, and analyze the shifting dynamics within Labour's constituency. The discussion takes a turn as they ponder whether UK politics is caught in a timewarp since 2019, emphasizing the enduring influence of figures like Nigel Farage.
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May 2026 Results Might Not Be Pivotal
- Sally Morgan and others think the May 2026 results are largely "baked in" and may not be decisive for Starmer's fate.
- Broad perception of likely poor results reduces shock value and may blunt moves to force a leadership change.
Labour's Coup Problem Is Structural
- Daniel Finkelstein frames Labour's weak coup culture as a structural problem: challengers bear concentrated costs while benefits are diffused.
- That mismatch makes leadership challenges unlikely unless results are catastrophically bad or MPs coordinate mass action.
Watch For The Risk-Reduction Threshold
- If election results are severe, a challenger faces lower personal risk and may therefore act.
- Parties should watch thresholds where poor results reduce the cost of mounting a challenge and plan responses accordingly.