Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl #100 Olivier Schmitt: Europe’s Security Order Is Breaking Down – And It's Only the Beginning
Jan 3, 2026
In this engaging discussion, Olivier Schmitt, head of research at the Danish Defence College and a military strategy expert, examines Europe's precarious security landscape. He outlines the complex interplay of Russian aggression, rising China, and jihadism. Schmitt presents four potential scenarios for Europe's future, hinging on U.S. hostility and European unity. He emphasizes the necessity for Europe to rethink its military strategy and adapt to a reality where dependency on U.S. forces may no longer be viable.
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Europe Faces Dual Structural Shocks
- Europe faces simultaneous shocks: rising Russian aggression and an uncertain US partnership.
- Olivier Schmitt argues we must stop oscillating between denial and fatalism and think systematically.
Three Enduring Strategic Realities
- Schmitt identifies three constants: hostile Russia, China's rise, and persistent jihadist threats.
- These constants shape European strategy regardless of transatlantic shifts.
Two Variables Define Four Futures
- Two key variables determine futures: American hostility and European cohesion.
- Their interaction creates four plausible scenarios for Europe's security trajectory.