The podcast discusses Putin's hold on power in Russia and the ongoing war in Ukraine. It explores topics such as 'learned indifference' among Russians, support for repressive laws, cracks in the social contract, discontent among patriotic families, and attacks on individual morality and LGBTQ rights.
Russian society maintains a sense of normalcy through learned indifference, following the official discourse, and narrative, despite the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The regime fosters a cult of death and heroization of sacrifice, where participation in the war is seen as a patriotic duty, creating a social contract between the population and Putin.
Deep dives
The Normalcy and Adaptation in Putin's Regime
Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, there is a recurring theme of normalcy in Russian society, which is maintained through learned indifference. People try to continue with their everyday lives, following the official discourse and narrative. In the short term, the regime enforces a sense of economic normalcy through social payouts, higher salaries in the military-industrial complex, and marketized sectors. However, this approach is not sustainable in the long term, as it neglects the essence of a healthy economy and the loss of human capital.
The Cult of Death and Social Contract
The regime fosters a cult of death and heroization of sacrifice, where participation in the war is seen as a patriotic duty. This ideology creates a social contract between the population and Putin, where individuals are given the choice of military service or supporting the regime in exchange for a quiet and normal future. However, dissent is brewing among families of mobilized individuals, who are now demanding an end to the war and a return to normalcy. The regime's increasing repression and restrictive laws are met with passive acceptance from a society focused on self-preservation.
Putin's Regime and the Fragility of Stabilization
The stabilization of Putin's regime is based on a delicate balance of strong supporters and opposition, with a larger indifferent middle section of society. The regime's focus on imperial and nationalistic values, along with war rhetoric against the West, solidifies this balance. However, cracks are beginning to emerge, as some segments of the population, including families of mobilized individuals, express discontent with the war and the regime's ideology. The regime aims to avoid further mobilization, as it can strain the economy and destabilize the population. Nonetheless, the regime's hold on power may be tested by resource scarcity, discontent from above, and the need for future changes.
There’s a growing sense that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in a pretty good position heading into 2024. Certainly that’s what Putin wants the rest of the world to think—that he can outlast Ukraine and its supporters in the West. Yet the situation looks more complicated on the ground in Russia.
And there are few people better positioned to make sense of that reality than Andrei Kolesnikov. Kolesnikov, a journalist and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has been in Moscow since the war began. Over the last two years, he’s written a series of deeply illuminating pieces for Foreign Affairs. In December 2022, the Kremlin listed Kolesnikov as a foreign agent.
Kolesnikov spoke with Foreign Affairs Senior Editor Hugh Eakin on January 8 about Putin’s hold on power and how Russians view their leader and his disastrous war.