Xi Jinping has Signaled that Reunification with Taiwan is a Legacy Issue that he Must Achieve During his Term in Office: A Discussion with Ms. Bonnie Glaser and Mr. Chad Sbragia
Dec 20, 2023
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Ms. Bonnie Glaser and Mr. Chad Sbragia discuss Xi Jinping's determination to reunify with Taiwan, exploring his signaling and approach, the risks of conflict, China's integration initiative, challenges in the PLA, implications of upcoming elections, China's military options, and communication challenges.
Xi Jinping has not explicitly signaled that reunification with Taiwan is a legacy issue that he must achieve during his term in office.
China's decision to use force against Taiwan is largely based on conditions rather than timelines.
Conflict over Taiwan is not just about the status of the island but also encompasses broader strategic considerations and the changing dynamics of US-China relations.
Deep dives
Xi Jinping's stance on reunification with Taiwan as a legacy issue
Xi Jinping has not explicitly signaled that reunification with Taiwan is a legacy issue that he must achieve during his term in office. His statements about Taiwan have been similar to those made by previous leaders, indicating that there is nothing particularly new about his views. Additionally, he has not set a firm deadline for reunification, suggesting that it is not a rigid or immediate priority. While China is actively engaging in military activities close to Taiwan, it does not necessarily mean that reunification is urgent during Xi Jinping's tenure.
The importance of conditions-based approach to conflict with Taiwan
China's decision to use force against Taiwan is largely based on conditions rather than timelines. The pursuit of peaceful unification is a long-term goal for China, but the trigger for military action is likely to be the prevention of permanent loss of Taiwan or the perceived degradation of the trajectory towards unification. While there are speculations about specific timelines or markers, such as 2027 or 2035, the focus should be on understanding the changing dynamics of US-China relations and the increasing risk of conflict as mid-century approaches. The paradigm of deterring Chinese aggression over Taiwan should be examined within a broader strategic context.
Exploring the connection between US-China competition and conflict over Taiwan
The question of conflict over Taiwan cannot be separated from the broader US-China competition. China's use of force to compel unification is driven by its mid-century end state goals, which include reclaiming Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau. Conflict over Taiwan is not just about the status of the island but also encompasses broader strategic considerations and the changing dynamics of US-China relations. The US must consider a new paradigm that goes beyond military deterrence and acknowledges the fading effectiveness of military advantages as non-military factors become more dominant in deterrence.
China's consideration of conflict with Taiwan is influenced by broader US-China competition
China's view on conflict with Taiwan cannot be isolated from the broader strategic competition with the United States. The interaction between the proximal causation of war, such as Taiwan, and the distal causation of war, the US-China competition, is a crucial factor. The bifurcation of these two conditions is reductionist, and considering how they interact is more important. Thus, understanding China's objective or aim in relation to Taiwan should take into account the complexities of the broader strategic competition.
Conflict between China and Taiwan is not inevitable, but contingent upon changing conditions
While conflict between China and Taiwan is not inevitable, the likelihood of conflict increases unless there is a significant change in conditions. Xi Jinping's decision on going to war primarily revolves around the possibility of permanent loss of Taiwan and the potential for the situation to become untenable. China's behavior towards Taiwan's election and the actions of the United States are factors that will influence the Chinese assessment. The Chinese Communist Party aims to maintain the belief that peaceful unification is possible, as this prevents conflict. However, the lack of definitive statements from the United States on this issue is seen as problematic.
On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China’s power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January, 2024.
For this discussion, the proposition is “Xi Jinping has signaled that reunification with Taiwan is a legacy issue that he must achieve during his term in office.” The first speaker for this discussion is Ms. Bonnie Glaser, who is the managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund. The second speaker is Mr. Chad Sbragia, who is a research staff member at the Institute for Defense Analysis and is the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for China at the Department of Defense.
