Lawfare Daily: The U.S. Bombing of Yemen and the Houthi Response
Mar 21, 2025
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Gregory Johnsen, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute and a leading Yemen expert, discusses the U.S. bombing campaign in Yemen and its implications. He argues that the Houthis welcome conflict with America and Israel, seeking to leverage this for domestic support. The conversation delves into the complexities of U.S. military strategies, the challenges of foreign intervention, and the Houthi's strategic calculations amidst ongoing power struggles.
The U.S. bombing campaign in Yemen under the Trump administration aims to deter the Houthis, but they may exploit the situation to increase their domestic support.
The fragmented nature of the anti-Houthi coalition and reliance on airstrikes alone could hinder U.S. efforts to achieve a decisive military victory.
Deep dives
U.S. Military Strategy and Houthi Response
The U.S. recently escalated its military operations in Yemen, conducting extensive airstrikes against Houthi positions to deter further attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The strategy marks a shift from previous approaches that included limited strikes under the Biden administration, which failed to adequately degrade Houthi capabilities. The Trump administration's current objective is to make clear to the Houthis that their actions will have serious repercussions, including the destruction of their military infrastructure and leadership. However, the Houthis have historically endured heavy bombardments and continue to pose a threat, indicating that the U.S. military strategy may face significant challenges in achieving its goals effectively.
Challenges of Ground Involvement
As the U.S. intensifies its air campaign against the Houthis, analysts point out the potential need for a ground component to achieve decisive military victory. The historical reluctance of Saudi Arabia to deploy ground troops in Yemen serves as a cautionary tale for U.S. policymakers, as airstrikes alone may not bring about the desired political outcomes. The anti-Houthi coalition is fragmented, comprising groups with complex histories, making collaboration both risky and fraught with moral implications. Should airstrikes prove ineffective, the U.S. may feel pressured to engage further and possibly align with these various factions, which could complicate the situation even more.
Houthi Motivations and Future Conflicts
The Houthis are leveraging their conflict with the U.S. to bolster their domestic standing, as public sentiment in Yemen often aligns with the Palestinian cause. This allows the Houthis to rally support despite their authoritarian rule, as they frame their actions as part of a larger resistance. As a result, if tensions rise again between Israel and the Palestinians, the Houthis are likely to attack commercial shipping in the Red Sea, a tactic they see as beneficial for gaining support. The ongoing struggle for control over vital oil and gas resources in Yemen underscores the complexity of the conflict, as the Houthis aim to secure long-term economic stability.
For today's episode, Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman interviewed Gregory Johnsen, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, D.C. Johnsen explains the rationale of the Trump administration's decision to bomb Yemen but argues that it will have little effect on the Houthis. Indeed, Johnsen contends that the Houthis are spoiling for a fight with the United States and Israel, believing that this will generate support within Yemen that will help them increase their power.