Gene Seroka, CEO of the Port of LA, discusses how tariffs are affecting port traffic and the looming dangers for the U.S. economy. He predicts a potential 10% drop in cargo volume, highlighting the uncertainty in trade. Meanwhile, Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, shares insights from his article on the pitfalls of trade wars. Both guests dissect the interlinked fates of U.S. and Chinese markets and the ramifications of tariffs on employment and economic growth.
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insights INSIGHT
Tariffs Threaten Recession Risk
The US economy faces recession risks driven by tariffs and cost shocks despite current employment resilience.
The crucial factor for avoiding recession is how quickly aggressive trade policies are dialed back to prevent feedback effects.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Port Volume Drop Amid Tariffs
The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach face a 35% volume drop due to tariffs with major retailers halting shipments from China.
Port workers plan maintenance during slow periods to stay prepared for eventual volume recovery.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 2nd, 2025 Featuring: 1) Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist at Morgan Stanley, Sarah Hunt, Chief Markets Strategist at Alpine Woods Capital Investors, and Kristina Campmany, Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco, react to the April jobs figures. The S&P 500 has notched eight consecutive days of gains, its longest run since August, amid increased optimism that trade tensions are waning, but many strategists feel a market bull run will be driven by strong economic data. 2) Gene Seroka, CEO of the Port of LA, joins for a discussion on how tariffs on China are affecting port traffic and what it could mean for the US economy. In March, Seroka predicted a possible 10% volume decline in the second half of this year due to substantial inventory and tariff uncertainty. Port data continues to be of interest to economists and market watchers. 3) Anurag Rana, Senior Tech Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, wraps big tech earnings. Tech earnings and expectations of trade deals drove optimism in the markets, with investors awaiting the US jobs report on Friday, the last significant data release this week. 4) Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, talks about his Foreign Affairs piece on why trade wars are easy to lose. Still, market sentiment has remained upbeat due to reports of the US reaching out to China for tariff talks, causing the dollar index to climb and Treasury yields to rise. 5) Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU, brings us into the market open and discusses whether the US has stepped too far into the trade war and whether a recession is inevitable. While Wall Street's risk appetite has increased due to strong tech earnings - causing the S&P 500 to rise for eight consecutive days - it's unclear where trade deals with China and other partners will end up.
Bloomberg Surveillance 