Trading insights: Risk and reward for European equities post-YTD rally
Jan 24, 2025
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Dive into the intriguing world of European equities as experts discuss a notable rally driven by political stability and robust earnings. Discover the dual phases of this market surge, shaped by technical and fundamental shifts. Sectors like luxury goods and banks shine as top performers, benefiting from improved consumer sentiment. The podcast navigates the complexities of the UK market amidst rising yields and political risks, while highlighting investment opportunities across Europe and the UK. An insightful exploration for institutional investors!
The year-to-date rally in European equities has been driven by improved political stability, positive consumer indicators, and increasing investor sentiment.
Sector performance is poised for growth but remains sensitive to macroeconomic data and external geopolitical developments, necessitating cautious investment strategies.
Deep dives
Phases of the European Equity Rally
The recent rally in European equities can be divided into two significant phases. The first phase, occurring from mid-November to year-end, was largely driven by positioning and a reversion to more normal levels after European stocks had been oversold. In contrast, the second phase seems to reflect more fundamental improvements, such as increased political stability in key countries and positive earnings reports, particularly in the luxury sector. Investor sentiment has shifted, with many institutions increasing their positions, while hedge funds have shown a reluctance to engage fully in this latest upswing.
Potential Upside Catalysts for Europe
Several catalysts may influence the direction of European equities moving forward. Projections for European GDP growth appear conservative, presenting a backdrop of potential upsides bolstered by improving consumer indicators, lower unemployment, and rising disposable incomes. Moreover, key geopolitical developments, like a potential peace agreement regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could greatly impact market sentiment, alongside Germany's anticipated political shifts. Overall, while challenges remain, particularly around energy prices and external competition, these factors could yield significant positive momentum in the European market.
Sector-Specific Opportunities in the UK
The outlook for UK equities, particularly the FTSE 100, appears cautiously optimistic given several emerging catalysts. Current market conditions suggest potential benefits for sectors such as banks and homebuilders, fueled by strong earnings expectations and easing mortgage lending restrictions. However, the market remains sensitive to macroeconomic data, notably upcoming PMI and GDP figures that could sway investor confidence. While there are reasons for optimism, underlying uncertainties within the political landscape necessitate a measured approach to investment strategies in the UK market.
In this episode, Federico Manicardi, Head of International Market Intelligence, and Victoria Campos, a team member, delve into the risk and reward dynamics for European equities following a robust year-to-date rally (with SXXP and SX5E indices up 5-7% YTD and 6-10% from November lows). They explore the factors driving this rally, from depressed technicals to stronger consumer data, while identifying sectors with the most favorable risk/reward profiles moving forward. The discussion also covers the European macroeconomic landscape, corporate earnings potential, political dynamics, and the potential impact of US tariffs. Federico and Victoria are joined by Eloise Goulder, Head of the wider Data Assets & Alpha Group.
This episode was recorded on January 22, 2025.
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