Barry Eichengreen, UC Berkeley economist, discusses the implications of rising government debt and explores topics like inflation, fiscal consolidation, political challenges, global savings surpluses, and the role of private investors in US treasuries. The podcast also covers the risks associated with high government debt and its potential impact on the financial system.
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Quick takeaways
Governments borrow for both emergency responses and prolonged fiscal deficits, emphasizing the need to reduce heavy debt burdens for fiscal sustainability.
Central banks may become the primary tool during economic downturns due to increased debt-to-GDP ratios but face challenges with managing interest rates and financial stability risks.
Deep dives
Living in a World with More Debt
The podcast episode discusses the emerging theme of living in a world with more debt. This is highlighted by recent events such as credit rating downgrades and concerns about buying bonds due to high supply. The conversation explores the technical factors of debt absorption and the shift towards fiscal authorities taking a more active role in economic management. The implications for inflation, central banking, and policy trajectory are debated, with a recognition that these questions will be discussed for years to come.
The Reasons Governments Borrow So Much
The podcast delves into the reasons why governments borrow so much. It explains that governments borrow for both good and bad reasons. In exceptional circumstances like recessions, financial crises, or wars, governments resort to borrowing to finance emergency responses. However, when there is divided government and a lack of agreement on fiscal policies, fiscal deficits and high debt ratios persist. The podcast highlights the need for governments to reduce heavy debt burdens in order to allocate tax revenues to other important areas and restore fiscal sustainability.
The Role of Central Bankers and High Public Debt
The podcast emphasizes the role of central bankers in a world of high public debt. It discusses two key factors that central bankers need to consider in their policies. First, fiscal authorities will have less room for active fiscal response in the future due to increased debt-to-GDP ratios. This means monetary policy could become the primary tool during economic downturns. Second, central banks might face pressure to actively manage debt, potentially tolerating higher inflation but facing challenges with managing interest rates and financial stability risks.
Implications of Living with High Debt
The podcast explores the implications of living with high debt levels. It discusses the need to avoid steps that worsen the debt situation, such as raising taxes during good times and lowering unproductive spending. The conversation highlights the importance of targeting social transfers to limit expenditure pressures. It also acknowledges historical analogies, such as crises that galvanize fiscal action, and the challenge of achieving broad political consensus on fiscal policies. The discussion concludes with cautious reflections on the global impact of high debt and its potential constraints on future fiscal responses.
In recent years, the absolute level of government debt around the world has risen dramatically. The Covid emergency unleashed a huge wave of public-sector spending in 2020 and beyond. Meanwhile, spending remains high for other reasons, including public investment on climate and energy-related issues. So what does that mean for policy going forward? What does it mean for central banks tasked with controlling inflation? University of California at Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen presented a paper on exactly this topic at this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. On this episode, we speak with Eichengreen about his research, why it's of importance to central bankers, and what history says about the prospects for fiscal consolidation.