Middle East Focus Bonus Episode: Can Yemen Hold Together?
Jan 23, 2026
F. Gregory Gause III, Gulf politics scholar, and Fatima Abo Alasrar, Yemen policy specialist, explore Yemen's shifting civil war landscape. They discuss Saudi consolidation of power and the restructuring of southern forces. They analyze the Saudi‑UAE tensions, Tehran’s ties to the Houthis, the rise of nonstate actors, and the obstacles to credible dialogue and DDR in Yemen.
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Saudi Recentered Control Over Southern Forces
- Saudi Arabia shifted from a coalition manager to direct controller of southern military authority.
- Riyadh moved Yemen's political center of gravity decisively outward toward Riyadh to prevent fragmentation threatening its border.
STC Gamble Clashed With Saudi State-Centric Strategy
- The STC's gamble challenged Saudi interests but was not irrational given its declining position.
- Saudi preference now favors state-centered actors and negotiation with Houthis over empowering non-state proxies.
Houthis' Ideological Resilience Matters
- The Houthis closely align with Iran's strategic playbook and move in ways consistent with Tehran's objectives.
- Their ideological investment in society gives them resilience beyond mere external support.