Join Sam Rines, a sharp analyst on market trends, and Jeff Weniger, who dives into consumer behavior, as they explore the resilience of middle- and upper-income consumers amid economic uncertainties. They discuss the struggles traditional brands like Kraft-Heinz are facing and delve into the gold market's buoyancy influenced by central bank buying. Blake Heimann and Chris Gannatti then highlight insights from a tech conference, examining AI infrastructure, chip supply dynamics, and the growing importance of tech giants like NVIDIA in a landscape reminiscent of the 2000 bubble.
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insights INSIGHT
Labor Softening Aligns With Fed Cut Pricing
The labor market is clearly softening with weak manufacturing and healthcare hours despite a volatile household gain.
Bond markets price cuts and equities remain in a bull phase driven by expected Fed easing and AI optimism.
insights INSIGHT
Productivity Bounce Is Not A Surge
Recent productivity bounced but multi-quarter averages remain weak, so there is no clear productivity surge.
AI is seen as a potential offset to tariff and cost pressures but the scale and timing are uncertain.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Costco As A Consumer Health Barometer
Sam Rines highlights Costco's mid-single-digit comps as evidence middle and upper-middle consumers remain resilient.
He argues that resilient spending by these groups typically prevents a significant U.S. economic breakdown.
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Show from 09/05/25
Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest job report, which showed weaker-than-expected numbers, particularly in manufacturing and healthcare. The Professor highlights that while the household survey showed a gain, it's too volatile to weigh heavily. He emphasizes that the labor market is softening, which aligns with the bond market's pricing-in of rate cuts at upcoming Fed meetings. Siegel also notes productivity data remains unimpressive despite a recent bounce and reiterates his belief that equity markets remain in a bull phase, supported by anticipated rate cuts and broader AI optimism. (11:51) Jeremy is then joined by Sam Rines and Jeff Weniger, who analyze consumer behavior through companies like Costco and Lululemon, noting that middle- and upper-income consumers remain resilient. They dive into the struggles of traditional staples like Kraft-Heinz and Pepsi, which are facing breakup speculation and activist investor pressure, while also discussing historical examples of value creation through corporate spin-offs. The conversation expands to gold and gold miners, which are benefiting from central bank buying, falling interest rates, and improved operational efficiencies. In the second half of the episode, Blake Heimann and Chris Gannatti join to unpack insights from a tech conference, highlighting AI infrastructure trends, chip supply dynamics, and the rising relevance of companies like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and SoftBank. They also explore pressures in the software sector from private competitors and ongoing leadership transitions. The group discusses how firms are building agentic AI workflows atop specialized datasets, creating opportunities and risks as Big Tech integrates AI across platforms. The show closes with a detailed conversation on AI compute economics, GPU payback cycles, and the sustainability of massive CapEx spending in AI infrastructure.
Blake Heimann on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/blakeheimann/?originalSubdomain=uk
WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments
Behind the Markets Podcast