Why Spot Ether ETFs Are Now Likely to Be Approved on Thursday - Ep. 648
May 21, 2024
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Eric Balchunas and Matt Hougan discuss the sudden likelihood of approval for spot Ether ETFs, attributing it to political factors. They explore reasons behind Michael Sonnenshein's resignation from Grayscale, reveal the identities of spot Bitcoin ETF buyers, and speculate on the impact of Vanguard's new CEO on crypto at the firm. Topics include approval odds, political shifts in Washington, behind-the-scenes players, and comparisons to Bitcoin ETFs.
Approval of spot Ether ETFs likely due to political factors and reversal in previous expectations.
Bitcoin ETF approval triggered policy changes in Washington, signaling a shift in crypto acceptance.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs expected to launch in late Q3 or early Q4, driving significant demand and industry growth.
Deep dives
Analysis of ETF Impact on Bitcoin Price
The market anticipates the having and it is priced in based on expectations of future demand. The positive impact of the having will come from excess demand chasing Bitcoin, leading to scarcity. The having removes sellers, creating upside skew as demand is underestimated, historically driving post-having price booms.
Buffered ETFs: An Overview
Buffered ETFs utilize flex options to structure outcomes, such as hedging against downside risk while capping upside potential. These ETFs cater to investors seeking defined outcomes and lower volatility. They are ideal for individuals with shorter investment horizons, providing a sense of security amidst market fluctuations.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Approval Predictions
Spot Bitcoin ETF approval on national platforms is anticipated in the second half of the year, potentially in late Q3 or early Q4. The approval is expected to unlock a significant wave of demand. The introduction of spot ETFs on traditional financial platforms is viewed as a crucial ETF industry development.
Future Trends in Crypto-Related ETFs
Vanguard's adoption of Bitcoin-related investment products and the progression of stablecoin legislation are key focus areas for the ETF market. The potential expansion of spot Bitcoin ETF offerings by major financial institutions is monitored for upcoming industry trends. The evolving policy and regulatory landscape in Washington may drive further innovation and growth in the ETF market.
Analysis of Leadership Changes
The appointment of new CEOs at prominent financial institutions like Grayscale and Vanguard signals potential shifts in investment product offerings. The impact of leadership changes on the trajectory of Bitcoin investment products and financial strategies is a key area of interest. The evolving landscape of ETFs and investment vehicles in response to market dynamics and consumer demand remains a focal point for industry analysts.
Just when everyone thought that spot Ether ETFs were going to be denied on Thursday, news broke Monday that they are now likely to be approved, with Bloomberg analysts tripling their odds to a 75% chance of approval.
Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise Asset Management, say this reversal definitely has to do with politics, citing the fight of Staff Accounting Bulletin 121, a rule that was unfriendly to financial institutions wanting to engage with crypto.
Plus, they delve into the reasons why Michael Sonnenshein stepped down as CEO of Grayscale after 10 years (hint: it has to do with GBTC), what the 13F filings revealed about who’s been buying the spot bitcoin ETFs since the beginning of the year, and what Vanguard’s incoming CEO, Salim Ramji, who was instrumental to getting BlackRock to launch its Bitcoin ETF, could mean for crypto’s future at the asset management firm.
Show highlights:
Why Eric believes the ether ETFs will be approved
Why Matt thinks the Bitcoin ETFs set off a "complete sea change in Washington around crypto"
Whether the spot Ether ETFs will be approved with or without staking
Who the authorized participants and other behind-the-scenes players in the ether ETFs will be
When the ETH ETFs could start trading and why Eric believes they won't be as successful as Bitcoin ETFs
What the 13F filings revealed about the spot Bitcoin ETFs buyers and why their identities are "stunning"
Why Michael Sonnenshein stepped down as CEO of Grayscale
Grayscale’s new mini ETF, BTC
Whether Vanguard's new CEO appointment could mean a change in attitude by the asset management firm towards crypto
What a buffered ETF is and why they could be significant
Matt's prediction for the BTC price
Their outlook on the future of ETFs and developments in the space
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