Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes Trump's 28-point plan for Ukraine
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Nov 21, 2025 In this insightful discussion, Jana Kobzova, co-director of ECFR’s European Security Programme with a focus on Ukraine, teams up with Jim O’Brien, a former US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe. They delve into a leaked 28-point framework aimed at ending the Ukraine conflict, dismissing it as a potential capitulation. The duo analyzes the implications for European security and the contentious demands of the plan. They also address how Ukraine's sovereignty can be preserved amidst international negotiations while navigating domestic political challenges.
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Ceasefire Blueprint Forces Major Ukrainian Concessions
- The 28-point plan frames a ceasefire that would force Ukraine to concede territory and limit its military and alliance choices.
- It offers Ukraine US security guarantees and Russia sanctions relief, but lacks detailed European security arrangements.
Europe Treated As An Afterthought
- The plan treats Europe as a bystander while proposing decisions that reshape European security and control of frozen assets.
- Europeans were likely not consulted and face unaddressed consequences for their defense posture and legal control of assets.
Mixed Moves: Softer Limits, Toxic Political Terms
- Some provisions are less extreme than earlier drafts, e.g., troop caps eased from 80,000 to 600,000 and no broad ban on Ukrainian capabilities.
- But the plan's full amnesty clause and US-Russia control over assets make it politically toxic in Kyiv and Europe.
