Eurodollar University The World Isn't Prepared for What Just Happened to Oil
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Jul 29, 2025 The podcast delves into the persistent oil supply glut and the misconceptions surrounding it. It highlights alarming economic signals from Ireland, India, and China, showcasing diminishing GDP and industrial production. The discussion underscores how these indicators link to a global demand decline rather than supply shortages. Additionally, it reveals that low crude oil prices are symptomatic of weakened demand, compounded by ineffective recovery strategies and volatile geopolitical influences, providing a comprehensive look at the current economic landscape.
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Persistent Oil Supply Glut
- Oil prices remain below $70 because of persistent supply glut fears despite geopolitical tensions.
- Weak global demand, highlighted by economic contractions and inflation concerns, underpins this glut.
Summer Demand Masks Oversupply
- Refining margins are boosted by artificial summer demand but will decline once the season fades.
- Anticipated supply glut suppressed crude availability, propping up refining margins temporarily.
Oil Glut Postponed by Artificial Demand
- The expected oil supply glut has been delayed due to artificial demand caused by trade war tariff activity.
- This delay pushes the supply glut risk from early to late 2025 and beyond as economic weakness persists.