HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on the most important data to watch this week
Jun 3, 2024
Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami discusses the most influential data to monitor this week, focusing on labor reports affecting mortgage rates. The conversation delves into the relationship between job market indicators and Fed policy decisions, analyzing how job losses impact housing demand and mortgage rates. Insights are shared on the correlation between mortgage rates and labor data, with a humorous take on housing market reactions and cost-effective healthcare solutions.
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Housing Market and Interest Rates
- The housing market needs lower rates for a sustained period to see a significant demand increase.
- Short-term rate drops create temporary spikes, but sustained low rates are needed for broader market impact.
Jobless Claims as a Pivot Indicator
- Jobless claims reaching 323,000 could signal a breaking point for the labor market, prompting a Federal Reserve pivot.
- This level is key because it provides cover for the Fed to adjust policy based on labor market weakness.
Wage Growth and Fed Policy
- Wage growth is a crucial factor alongside headline job numbers for the Federal Reserve's decision-making.
- Declining wage growth to 3-3.5% could make the Fed more comfortable, as it signals easing inflationary pressures.