The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.
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The S&P 500 index has now retraced 50% of last year’s bear market decline. Once that milestone had been breached in previous bear markets since World War Two, the index was up 12 months later in all instances. It was also up 12 months later following the last rate hike of all the rate hike cycles since 1980, with the exception of one (the year 2000). With the pace and magnitude of the current rate hike cycle the fastest in history, our view is it is over, with the last rate hike occurring three weeks ago. The big surprise this year is the V-shaped recovery in technology stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 up 30% since the beginning of the year. Usually after such a big sell-off as last year’s, time is needed to build a base. Last week hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller said "AI is very, very real and could be every bit as impactful as the internet". While valuations of some of the purer-play AI stocks are back to dot-com highs, for others, compound annual growth rates over the next five years mean they will be significantly cheaper than the S&P 500 index.
This episode is hosted by Mark Matthews, Head Research Asia at Julius Baer.
