Why Fertility Rates Are Plunging—in the U.S., South Korea, and Everywhere Else

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Jun 13, 2023

In this discussion, Andrew Yeo, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and expert on South Korean politics, delves into the alarming decline in fertility rates in both the U.S. and South Korea. He highlights the emotional and societal impacts, exploring how economic pressures and educational demands shape family planning. Yeo also addresses housing affordability issues in Seoul and the evolving cultural perceptions of marriage and parenthood. This conversation reveals the intricate ties between women's empowerment, education, and the future of family dynamics.

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INSIGHT

Declining Fertility Rates

U.S. fertility rate is at a record low of 1.6, below the replacement level of 2.1.
South Korea's rate is even lower, less than 1, after a dramatic drop from 6 in 1960.

INSIGHT

Reasons for Low Fertility

Couples in many rich countries, including South Korea, have fewer children than desired.
This stems from work, cost of living, education expenses, and cultural expectations.

ANECDOTE

Korean Work Culture

Andrew Yeo recounts an anecdote where his friend in Korea had to stay at work until their boss left, even without work to do.
This illustrates the Korean work culture's emphasis on presenteeism, not productivity.

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Last year, there were 3,661,220 babies born in the U.S. That sounds like a lot. But historically speaking, it’s really not. It’s actually 15 percent below our peak in 2007. And it means America’s total fertility rate—the average number of babies a woman today is expected to have in her lifetime, based on current trends—is essentially stuck at its all-time record low. For decades, the U.S. birthrate has been below the so-called replacement level of 2.1. Today it’s around 1.6.

Sometimes, I feel a little weird talking about fertility and birthrates like they’re just ordinary numbers with decimal points, like monthly used-car inflation. Fertility is complicated. It is emotional. And it is private. But I’m fascinated by this issue because the collective private decisions of hundreds of millions of families really do shape the future of population growth. And there’s just no getting around the fact that population growth is one of the most important factors in determining economic growth, tax revenue, productivity, innovation, and public finance.

We’re in a moment now in world history where every major country is projected to have a shrinking population in the next 20 years. No country gives us a better glimpse of this impending future than South Korea. In 1960, the average Korean woman had six children. Today, Korean woman average less than one child. Today, the country has the world’s lowest fertility rate.

Today’s guest is Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies and a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C. In this episode, we look at this thorny and important issue by first zooming in to South Korea, where Andrew gives me an education on a country I’m extremely curious about, but frankly know very little about. And then we zoom out and talk about how South Korea is a canary in the coal mine for the rest of the planet when it comes to the many ways that fertility rates affect just about everything else.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Andrew Yeo

Producer: Devon Manze

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