Eric Muller of Oak Hill Advisors discusses the constraints holding banks back from competing with private credit, increased regulatory scrutiny, the clampdown on 'season and sell' structures, the quest for a $10bn unitranche, and private lenders taking the keys to struggling companies.
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Quick takeaways
Regulation and organizational constraints hinder banks from effectively competing with established private credit firms.
Increased regulation and potential legal challenges may impact the viability of tax-minimizing 'season and sell' strategies, affecting smaller private credit funds more than larger firms.
Deep dives
Growing Opportunity in Private Credit
The private credit market has experienced significant growth, with projections suggesting it will surpass the loan market in size within the next five years. Large players in the industry, such as Blue Owl and Oak Hill Advisors, have an advantage in capital raising due to their established reputations and ability to tap into the wealth channel. However, the market is also seeing new entrants every day, indicating a competitive landscape with opportunities for smaller players focused on middle market and lower middle market deals.
Challenges for Banks in Private Credit
Banks face various challenges when competing in the private credit space. They have heavier regulatory oversight, stricter capital charges, and changing priorities that may limit their risk tolerance. Banks tend to pull back on risk during market dislocations, whereas independent firms like Oak Hill Advisors have greater flexibility to hold positions and adapt to different market environments. While banks have significant origination capabilities, their decision-making process can sometimes be complicated, making it harder for them to effectively compete.
The Impact of Regulation on Private Credit
Private credit firms, both large and small, are already subject to regulation, particularly from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, increased regulation is expected in the future, especially as the asset class attracts a broader group of investors, including individuals through non-traded BDCs. The performance of the asset class during a default cycle will likely determine the level of scrutiny it faces. Currently, private credit has performed well, but if defaults increase and individual investors are negatively impacted, it could invite further regulation.
The Viability of Season and Sell Strategies
Season and sell strategies have been popular among offshore investors seeking tax-efficient access to the private credit market. However, recent scrutiny from the IRS and an ongoing lawsuit may impact the viability of this strategy. If the lawsuit ruling favors the IRS, it could disproportionately affect smaller private credit funds, making it more difficult for them to access foreign LP capital. Meanwhile, larger firms with additional resources and the ability to structure vehicles like BDCs may have an advantage in attracting offshore investors.
Can banks really compete with the big guns of private credit? Many are trying — but there are multiple constraints holding them back, from regulation all the way through to organizational structure and culture.
This is just one of the topics we discussed in our podcast with Eric Muller of Oak Hill Advisors, a seasoned veteran not just of the direct lending market but also of the banking industry.
Along the way, we quizzed him about increased regulatory scrutiny of private credit firms, the clampdown on tax-minimizing ‘season and sell’ structures, the quest for the $10bn unitranche, and the growing trend of private lenders taking the keys to struggling companies.
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