Exchanges Commodities Outlook: What’s Driving Oil, Gold, and Base Metals
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Jul 1, 2025 
Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, dives into the intricate dance of global commodities. He reveals how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are pushing oil prices in unpredictable directions. Gold is experiencing a bullish surge due to central bank diversification and a weaker dollar. Struyven also discusses the impact of impending tariffs on metal prices and highlights how rising defense spending could boost demand for commodities like copper and nickel.
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Oil Geopolitics Risk Explained
- Geopolitical risk premium for oil spiked then quickly fell as actual supply disruptions seem unlikely.
- Key reasons include muted Iranian response, pre-warning to affected countries, and incentives to keep oil flowing.
Oil Price Spike Scenarios
- Crude oil could spike above $90 per barrel if Iran's supply drops sharply, or above $110 if the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted long-term.
- However, such scenarios are tail risks but require close monitoring due to geopolitical instability.
China’s Energy Diversification Trend
- China's strategy will shift toward diversifying energy supply and reducing foreign oil imports due to geopolitical risks.
- This will likely reduce oil and gas demand but boost demand for copper and green metals.