Under “normal” circumstances, economists and analysts study a variety of specific indicators to understand what’s happening with the US economy. But lately, those indicators have been sending mixed signals. The FT’s US financial commentator Robert Armstrong explains why they’re wonky and how that’s led him to a different data source to help him understand the economy.

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For further reading:

Recession odds fall, a bit

There is more slack in labour markets than we think

An ‘immaculate disinflation’ in the US is not guaranteed

Stocks rise on robust US bank earnings and ECB rates signal

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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2025.04.08: The Second To Last Of Us