Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Is Violent Societal Unrest Now Inevitable? | Peter Turchin
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Oct 28, 2025 Peter Turchin, a complexity scientist and author, explores societal instability and its implications. With insights from his book End Times, he discusses the structural factors leading to unrest, including elite overproduction and economic disparities. Turchin shares his 2010 crisis forecast, comparing the U.S. and France in terms of social protections and crisis risks. He emphasizes the importance of addressing the 'wealth pump' through policy changes to mitigate impending societal turmoil.
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States Follow Century-Long Cycles
- Large-scale state societies follow recurring boom–bust cycles lasting about a century driven by social dynamics.
- Structural demographic forces explain waves of political instability and revolutions across history.
Three Core Drivers Of Crisis
- Structural-demographic theory identifies three core crisis drivers: popular immiseration, elite overproduction, and state fiscal/legitimacy weakness.
- These combined pressures create the conditions for revolutionary outbreaks when triggered.
Frustrated Elites Fuel Revolutions
- Elite overproduction creates frustrated would-be elites who can organize revolutions as counter-elites.
- Historical revolutions are often led and structured by these counter-elite actors, not by unorganized masses.
