NAB Morning Call cover image

NAB Morning Call

Too much of a good thing

Aug 15, 2024
Rodrigo Catril, a market research expert, shares insights on the unexpectedly strong US retail sales and their impact on equities and bond yields. He discusses how this signals resilience against recession fears, affecting Federal Reserve policies. The conversation highlights the UK’s modest GDP growth and the challenges facing Europe amidst rising yields. Catril also explores the relationship between weather patterns and retail trends, as well as the paradox of rising employment but increasing unemployment in Australia.
16:24

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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The strong retail sales growth in the US signals consumer resilience, alleviating recession fears and impacting bond yields significantly.
  • Australia's rising unemployment rate despite job growth suggests a complex labor market, influencing the RBA's high-interest rate policy amid ongoing inflation concerns.

Deep dives

Positive Economic Indicators in the US

Retail sales in the United States have seen a significant increase, rising by 1% in July after a previous drop of 0.2%. This uptick suggests strong consumer resilience, positioning the US economy favorably against recession fears. The robust sales figures have prompted a notable market reaction, particularly in treasury yields, with an increase observed in the two-year part of the curve, attributed to expectations that a recession may not be imminent. Although other economic indicators show some volatility, such as fluctuating job creation rates, the overall data does not signal an urgent downturn, keeping optimism alive for the US economy.

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