Rodrigo Catril, a market research expert, shares insights on the unexpectedly strong US retail sales and their impact on equities and bond yields. He discusses how this signals resilience against recession fears, affecting Federal Reserve policies. The conversation highlights the UK’s modest GDP growth and the challenges facing Europe amidst rising yields. Catril also explores the relationship between weather patterns and retail trends, as well as the paradox of rising employment but increasing unemployment in Australia.
Retail sales in the United States have seen a significant increase, rising by 1% in July after a previous drop of 0.2%. This uptick suggests strong consumer resilience, positioning the US economy favorably against recession fears. The robust sales figures have prompted a notable market reaction, particularly in treasury yields, with an increase observed in the two-year part of the curve, attributed to expectations that a recession may not be imminent. Although other economic indicators show some volatility, such as fluctuating job creation rates, the overall data does not signal an urgent downturn, keeping optimism alive for the US economy.
Mixed Signals from the UK Economy
The UK's GDP growth rate of 0.9% year-on-year for Q2 is considered acceptable, despite softening observed in June's performance. As the UK economy appears to perform better than the broader European context, the pound has strengthened, whereas the euro has weakened, likely due to fluctuations in investment and consumer confidence. The upcoming retail sales data for July is anticipated to reflect a bounce back from June’s negative numbers, potentially aided by improved weather conditions that support consumer activity. However, concerns remain regarding the underlying economic performance in Europe, which complicates the outlook for the Bank of England.
Australia's Employment Landscape
Australia's job market has shown growth with an increase in employment, yet this has coincided with a rise in the unemployment rate due to a growing participation rate. This paradox offers a nuanced view of labor market conditions, suggesting a gradual cooling that may influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy stance. Despite rising unemployment, the RBA is likely to maintain its high-interest rate approach as inflation concerns persist, particularly in the services sector. As expectations around potential rate cuts shift, clarity on the trajectory of Australia's labor market will be essential in shaping economic policy.
US retail sales numbers out yesterday showed surprisingly strong spending in July. That’s pushed equities markedly higher. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says bond yields are up as markets see this retail strength as a sign that the US is not heading for a recession, which reduces the impetus for a faster path of cuts by the Fed. Rodrigo also discusses the UK’s GDP read, today’s retail numbers there, and the swag of activity data from China yesterday. Plus, what to make of yesterday's Australian employment numbers.