The podcast dives into alarming warnings from retailers about a potential holiday shopping slump due to dwindling consumer spending. Major players like Kohl's and Best Buy face tough times, with revised sales forecasts and mounting economic pressures. It also explores the ongoing struggles of computer giants HP and Dell, grappling with sluggish demand in the PC market. The discussion uncovers how these retail and tech trends reflect broader economic challenges influencing the labor market and consumer behavior.
Retailers like Kohl's are experiencing significant sales declines, driven by consumers' reduced spending power amidst stagnant incomes and inflation.
Budget-conscious shoppers are notably adjusting their holiday spending behaviors, seeking discounts and alternative purchasing options like used items.
Deep dives
Holiday Retail Sales Decline
Several major retailers, including Kohl's, Target, and Best Buy, are experiencing significant declines in holiday sales, with Kohl's reporting a 20% drop in its stock price after revising its sales outlook for 2024. These retailers indicated that consumer foot traffic is not meeting expectations, which has raised concerns about overall spending trends in the upcoming holiday season. For instance, Best Buy's same-store sales decreased by 2.9%, marking one of its worst performance periods in the last decade, highlighting a broader trend of budget-conscious consumers minimizing big-ticket purchases. The downturn in sales underscores a cyclical decline affecting not just retail but also various sectors of the economy as consumers grapple with reduced disposable income and purchasing power.
Impact of Weak Incomes on Consumer Behavior
The decline in consumer spending is primarily attributed to stagnant incomes that have not kept pace with inflation, leading to budget adjustments among shoppers. Examples from the episode illustrate this shift, with families planning to cut holiday spending significantly, such as a mother lowering her children's gift budget from $1,500 to $500. This sentiment is echoed by consumers seeking heavy discounts or opting for used items, as seen in a sales executive's extensive research to purchase a pre-owned rowing machine. Overall, these behaviors reflect a cautious approach to spending in light of economic uncertainty and the pressure of rising living costs.
Broader Economic Concerns and Market Divergence
The current economic conditions indicate a cyclical downturn not only within specific industries, such as semiconductors, but across the overall economy, with major companies like HP and Dell reporting disappointing results. Both firms noted persistent challenges in the personal computer market, failing to meet revenue expectations due to compromised consumer spending, which affects their ability to raise prices amid rising costs. The episode highlights the growing disconnect between stock market performances, illustrated by the S&P 500 reaching record highs while semiconductor stocks lag, signaling deep-rooted economic issues related to incomes. This divergence suggests that underlying economic weaknesses are exerting pressure on consumer behavior, further complicating the outlook for holiday retail performance.
An entire batch of corporate reports from retailers to computer-makers, just in time for the key holiday season's critical moment. Each one warning that consumers in the US just aren't there, being held back. Why? The government also reported today with the answer to that question, the one factor that ties it all together.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Inflation-Battered Consumers Are Going to Extreme Lengths to Nab Holiday Deals https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-27/black-friday-deals-in-us-have-been-transformed-by-inflation
Bloomberg Kohl’s Troubles Deepen as Retailers Call Out Weak Spending https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/kohl-s-cuts-sales-outlook-on-weaker-spending-on-clothes-shoes
CNBC Retailers saw a dismal fall quarter. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/consumers-retailers-post-election-economic-outlook-rcna181794
CNBC HP forecasts first-quarter profit below estimates on sluggish demand in PC market https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/26/hp-earnings-report-q4-2024.html
Bloomberg Dell and HP Inc. Fall After Reporting Disappointing PC Sales https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/dell-reports-sales-that-miss-estimates-on-setback-for-pc-market