UnHerd with Freddie Sayers Deep dive: Is this the end of trans?
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Oct 15, 2025 
Eric Kaufmann, a Politics Professor at the University of Buckingham, shares surprising insights about the decline in trans and queer identities among young Americans. He reveals that trans identification nearly halved since 2023, drawing on extensive data from university surveys. Their engaging discussion examines potential causes, including mental health trends post-pandemic and a shift in societal attitudes. Kaufmann also explores whether this decline indicates a reversion to previous norms in gender and sexual identities, prompting a thought-provoking dialogue on cultural shifts.
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Massive Student Surveys Reveal Real Trends
- Large-scale FIRE student surveys (50k–68k) reveal trends in gender and sexuality from 2020–2025. The sample size reduces noise and lets Eric Kaufmann track real cohort changes rather than anecdotes.
Non-Binary Identification Peaked Then Fell
- Non-binary identification rose to a peak in 2023 then roughly halved by 2025 in multiple datasets. Kaufmann highlights a rise from ~3% to ~7% then back down to ~3–4% in the FIRE data.
Drop In 'Gateway' Identities Suggests Real Retreat
- Kaufmann argues the decline is unlikely to be explained by people privately switching to male/female answers; the reduction in the 'gateway' non-binary group indicates a shrinking pool of potential future trans-identifying individuals. He doubts the hardcore trans-identifying fraction is entirely unaffected.