Macro Voices MacroVoices #502 Tian Yang: A Whiff of Reflation?
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Oct 16, 2025 
In this discussion, Tian Yang, CEO of Variant Perception, delves into leading indicators and their implications for growth and inflation. He presents a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, emphasizing resilient growth and a potential reflationary environment. Tian also compares current market conditions to the early 2000s, exploring recession risks and signaling from inventory rebuilding trends. He provides insights on rising inflation pressures and the recovery signs in China and the Eurozone, offering valuable trading strategies along the way.
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Reflationary Setup From Global Easing
- Variant Perception sees a synchronized global easing cycle and improving liquidity as a setup for reflation over the next 3–6 months.
- They view the Fed’s insurance cut as supporting growth and potentially pushing yields and the dollar higher.
U.S. Growth Is Resilient Around 2%
- Their U.S. leading growth indicator implies around 2% annualized growth, consistent with other high-frequency measures.
- Core private-sector activity shows resilient underlying growth at roughly 2.5% annualized.
2002–03 Jobless Recovery Analogue
- Tian highlights a 2002–2003 analogue: weak hiring but accelerating retail and capex, i.e., a jobless recovery pattern.
- He argues liquidity and global easing then mirror today, suggesting recovery rather than imminent recession.