Merryn Talks Money Burnham’s Bond Gamble, Gavekal’s Turkish Play, and Gold’s Crowded Hedge
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Sep 26, 2025 Hosts dive into Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham's intriguing bond-market comments and their implications for fiscal policy. They explore the concept of a 'Turkish Portfolio' that combines equities and gold as a hedge against currency debasement. There's a spirited discussion on the role of gold as a crowded hedge and whether it's overvalued. With a nod to the broader implications for Western economies, they also emphasize the importance of asset allocation in uncertain times.
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Bond Markets Are A Fiscal Reality
- Andy Burnham's claim to escape 'being in hock to the bond markets' conflicts with his costly nationalisation plans.
- John Stepek argues the only real way to reduce bond-market control is to cut deficits or spending.
Markets Don't Take Beliefs As Policy
- Merryn Somerset Webb stresses bond-market influence is not optional sentiment but a real constraint.
- She insists only lowering debt or deficits will reduce that control and restore market trust.
The 'Turkish Portfolio' Allocation
- Gavekal's Charles Gavekal defines a 'Turkish portfolio' as 50% equities and 50% gold when local currency cash and bonds are worthless.
- He suggests Western investors may need such allocations if fiscal debasement continues in major economies.