The Hiring Crisis: What’s Really Happening to the Job Market?
Dec 4, 2024
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The holiday shopping season is struggling, with fewer shoppers and lower spending reported. Despite claims of a robust job market, hiring rates have plummeted and wages remain stagnant. The rise of 'ghost jobs' creates a misleading picture of demand for labor, complicating the hiring landscape. Additionally, consumer caution reflects economic insecurity, as job security concerns dampen spending. Overall, the podcast highlights the deep-rooted issues affecting the labor market and economic recovery.
The U.S. hiring rate has alarmingly stalled, reflecting significant economic concerns as businesses exhibit a lack of confidence in the market.
Recent consumer spending data illustrates a shift toward financial caution, driven by job insecurity and stagnant wages affecting holiday shopping trends.
Deep dives
Declining Hiring Rates Indicate Economic Trouble
The U.S. hiring rate has reached alarming lows, reminiscent of the early 2010s and indicating serious economic issues. Recent statistics reveal that the hiring rate remains virtually unchanged, confirming a downward trend that has persisted since last summer. Despite reports of rising job openings, these figures are often misleading, as they do not reflect actual hiring capabilities or economic health. Overall, the significant drop in hiring signals a lack of confidence among businesses, which may result in continued economic deterioration if not addressed.
Consumer Spending Shows Signs of Weakness
Recent data from Black Friday and Cyber Monday reveals a decline in consumer spending, highlighting growing financial caution among shoppers. The total number of individuals shopping during Thanksgiving weekend fell by 1.7% compared to the previous year, with a notable decrease in online shoppers. However, brick-and-mortar stores saw a slight increase, indicating a shift in consumer preferences driven by competitive pricing. These spending challenges are attributed to a lack of job security and wage stagnation, with consumers prioritizing essential purchases over discretionary spending.
Misleading Job Openings Data Masks Real Economic Challenges
While job openings have reportedly increased, this metric is often unreliable due to issues like 'ghost jobs'—positions that are advertised but do not exist. Accurate assessments of labor market health are hampered by trends showing more job postings without corresponding increases in actual hiring. The hiring rate remains stagnant, further complicating interpretations of job openings data. This inconsistency reflects broader economic uncertainties, as the actual number of hirings paints a picture of a struggling labor market and an economy that is far from robust.
The Christmas shopping season is off to a poor start, with dim results coming in from various sources showing lower traffic and slower spending. The reason is easy enough to identify, starting with the latest labor report from the government. Hiring fell sharply before summer and never came back, all of that leading up to the holidays.
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Bloomberg Tally of US Shoppers Slipped During Key Holiday Weekend https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-03/tally-of-us-shoppers-slipped-during-key-holiday-weekend
CSA Cyber Monday online sales hit new record of $13.3 billion https://chainstoreage.com/cyber-monday-online-sales-hit-new-record-133-billion