We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network
TIP715: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke w/ Clay Finck
Apr 18, 2025
Dive into the world of decision-making with insights from a professional poker player. Learn how to distinguish quality decisions from mere outcomes, a concept known as 'resulting.' Embrace probabilistic thinking to improve your choices, and discover practical tools like backcasting and premortems to navigate uncertainty. Explore the dangers of cognitive biases and the importance of building a truth-seeking support system to refine your judgment. This engaging discussion ties together lessons from poker and investing for better decision-making.
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Quick takeaways
- Annie Duke emphasizes the importance of separating decision quality from outcomes to improve decision-making under uncertainty.
- The podcast discusses how adopting a probabilistic mindset and understanding biases helps in navigating decision-making processes effectively.
Deep dives
Understanding Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
Decisions often occur in contexts of uncertainty where luck impacts outcomes significantly. It's crucial to evaluate decisions based on their quality rather than solely on their results, as good decisions can lead to unfavorable outcomes, and vice versa. This principle is vital in various domains, from investing to team leadership, where separating decision quality from results fosters learning and improvement. The notion of 'resulting' traps people into judging decisions based only on outcomes, which can hinder their decision-making skills over time.
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