THE RUNNING EFFECT PODCAST Fix Your Plateau: Alex Ostberg on the Real Reasons You’re Not Improving (and How to Turn Bad Days Into Breakthroughs)
Oct 11, 2025
In this enlightening conversation, Alex Ostberg, a coach-thinker and writer of The Rundown newsletter, delves into the unseen struggles runners face. He highlights cognitive traps that derail progress and explains how the sunk cost fallacy can hinder performance. Alex advocates for a scientific mindset in coaching, the myth of predictable progress, and the significance of handling bad days, suggesting these moments might be more valuable than they seem. With insights on flexibility in training and the importance of consistent efforts, Alex invites listeners to rethink their running journey.
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Beware The Planning Fallacy
- Cognitive biases like the planning fallacy make us wildly optimistic about timelines and abilities.
- Use the outside view to anchor expectations and avoid predictable disappointment.
Set Kill Criteria Before Trouble
- Establish kill criteria ahead of time to prevent sunk-cost driven decisions during injury or setbacks.
- Use clear thresholds (e.g., pain >3/10 for 3 days) to trigger plan changes and protect long-term progress.
Progress Isn't Predictable
- Training gains are not linear and prediction of improvement is unreliable even for experienced coaches.
- Biological filters and life factors create wide individual variability in adaptation.
