Excess Returns The Precarity Line | Ben Hunt and Adam Butler on the Broken Math of the American Dream
Dec 19, 2025
In this discussion, Adam Butler and Ben Hunt tackle the complex issue of economic precarity versus poverty. Butler, an investment professional and author, argues for a shift in focus from traditional poverty metrics to what people actually experience in their daily lives. They explore the role of debt, housing, and childcare in heightening economic insecurity, and critique the ways tech narratives dismiss emotional realities. They also delve into the impact of labor mobility, intergenerational support, and policy debates, urging a re-evaluation of solutions in an unstable economic landscape.
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Metrics Have Lost Touch With Reality
- Official metrics can drift far from lived reality, creating a dangerous disconnect between measurement and human flourishing.
- Adam Butler argues precarity, not poverty, better captures modern economic insecurity and its political consequences.
Personal Stakes Drove The Inquiry
- Adam Butler describes personal worry about his three children facing higher hurdles than his generation did.
- That emotional grounding drove his shift from technical critique to defining a participation budget for family formation.
Participation Budget For Family Formation
- The 'Bureau of Missing Children' frames a participation budget that bundles income, housing, childcare, transportation, student debt, and health costs.
- Butler finds many modern households lack the expected income to meet that bundled threshold for family formation.